How Local Covid Deaths Are Affecting Vote Choice

A rise in coronavirus-related deaths in a given community tends to reduce support for Republicans.

Americans Mostly Agree on Policing. The Difference Is Priorities.

Democrats prioritize banning chokeholds, and Republicans are focused on not defunding the police.

It’s Not Just Suburban Women. A Lot of Groups Have Turned Against Trump.

Independents are swinging toward Biden, a large survey shows.

Bernie Sanders, and How Indian Food Can Predict Vote Choice

Seemingly nonpolitical topics can shed light on political preferences.

Are Democratic Voters Truly Divided by Ideology?

Survey results suggests their views and priorities are far more alike than different, despite labels like moderate or progressive, centrist or liberal.

What Are Independent Voters’ Burning Issues?

After impeachment, their second-most important topic is the separation of immigrant children at the border.

What Is Voters' Highest Priority? There's a Way to Find Out

Peeling away preferences, a study shows impeachment is at the top of the list for Republicans, and is the second choice for Democrats.

It May Not Seem That Way, but Politicians Often Do What Voters Want

Data limitations once made the question hard to answer, but not anymore. 
 

It’s Not So Much the Debate. It’s the Days After the Debate. 

Dramatic moments aren’t as important as the story lines that become set in the aftermath.

Independents Approve of the Economy, but Will It Help Republicans in the Midterms?

Relying on independents as a bellwether for political outcomes is not as straightforward as it seems. For one thing, many of them aren’t paying that much attention to politics.

Unable to Excite the Base? Moderate Candidates Still Tend to Outdo Extreme Ones

An analysis of more than 30 years of House general elections suggests: Don’t nominate someone who will motivate the other side to show up.

Why Asking About Citizenship Could Make the Census Less Accurate

Distrust of the government's intentions toward noncitizens may be hard to overcome, research suggests, and political developments have increased levels of distrust.

Bill Clinton, Roy Moore and the Power of Social Identity

It may feel to Americans that an intense state of us-versus-them is something new, but it's not. People have been using party as a lens to filter information for decades and beyond. 

 

Why Trump's Softening on Immigration Is Unlikely to Splinter His Base

In a matter of weeks, President Trump has twice struck deals with Democrats in Congress that have left many of his supporters flummoxed. 

 

The Political Payoff of Making Whites Feel Like a Minority

Nationality, race and ethnicity are a large part of identity for most people. Factors like this matter more for some people than others — and for some groups more than others — but a sense of group awareness or membership exists in varying degrees across all segments of American society. 

The Great Political Divide Over American Identity

The data show that the nation as a whole is moving away from exclusionary conceptions of identity that President Trump benefited from.

A Superhero Power for Our Time: How to Handle the Truth

Simply telling people they’re wrong is unlikely to change minds: You have to understand the human defaults of gut feeling and analytic thinking.

 

The Ways That the 2016 Election Was Perfectly Normal

The economy and party identification typically matter a lot in elections, even in a year with a highly atypical candidate like Donald Trump.

Ordering Vindaloo or Hunting for Venison: How Cosmopolitanism Shapes the Vote

The degree of exposure to social and cultural differences is correlated with voting preferences.

Are You Married to Your Party?

A survey of whom American voters prefer for their children’s marriage partners shows just how powerful party identification has become.

The Ad That Moved People the Most: Bernie Sanders’s ‘America’

It was the campaign advertisement from 2016 that was rated the happiest and the most hopeful.

Why This Election Was Not About the Issues

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton focused on attacks on character, and the data on their campaign ads shows it.

Ads That Use Candidates’ Own Words, to Powerful Effect

It’s been an unusual presidential campaign season in many ways, and some of the ads are also a departure from established norms.

 

Do Campaign Ads Matter? Donald Trump Offers a Rare Chance to Find Out

Presidential rivals typically run roughly the same number of commercials. Donald Trump’s lack of advertising seems to be costing him.

So Just Who Are These Undecided Voters?

The data suggest that about half of them will stay home and that the other half will split similarly to those who have decided already.

What People Don’t Know About the Clinton Foundation Is Revealing in Itself

A survey to gauge public knowledge about charity work suggests that many voters are willing to buy into a negative narrative.

How Much Is Donald Trump Hurting the G.O.P.? Here’s a Way to See

He is no “generic” Republican, as survey results showed when it became clear he would secure the nomination.

Trump Seems More the Result of a Shift Among White Men Than the Cause of It

The data suggest that the big electoral move among this group had already started by the 2012 election, predating Mr. Trump.

Yes, Political Ads Are Still Important, Even for Donald Trump

He has started off slowly with ads, but there’s a reason he won’t skip them, even though the effects are small and short-lived.

 

Big Picture for Trump vs. Clinton? It’s All in the Framing

In times of gains, people tend to be risk-averse. (Advantage, Clinton). In times of loss, they tend to be risk-accepting. (Advantage, Trump.)

 

Insults and Ads: How Gender Hurts Trump but Doesn’t Lift Clinton

Research comparing two campaign ads, both on the theme of women, finds one far more effective at stirring up emotion and changing views of the candidates.

 

American Anger: It’s Not the Economy. It’s the Other Party.

Research shows that Americans are deeply split because of a partisanship that is increasingly based on racial attitudes.

Measuring Donald Trump’s Supporters for Intolerance

February 25, 2016 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Measuring Donald Trump’s Supporters for Intolerance"
 

-- Data analysis for “Measuring Donald Trump’s Supporters for Intolerance.”

Republicans and Hispanics: The Extent of the Damage Done

February 17, 2016 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Republicans and Hispanics: Confirmation of the Damage Done"

Everybody Hates Ted Cruz? No, Not Even Close

January 29, 2016 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Everybody Hates Ted Cruz? No, Not Even Close"

Donald Trump Is Also an Outlier in Political Science
January 07, 2016 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Donald Trump Is Also an Outlier in Political Science"


Fear of Muslims Is Strong Predictor of Support for Trump

December 09, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Fear of Muslims Is Strong Predictor of Support for Trump"

How Donald Trump Leverages America’s Fault Lines
November 03, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "How Donald Trump Leverages America’s Fault Lines"


Hillary Clinton’s Summer of Decline Had an Upside

October 14, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Clinton Loses Backers, But Gains Some as Well"


Trump’s Approach Is More Like Reagan’s Than You Might Think
September 17, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Trump’s Approach Is More Like Reagan’s Than You Might Think"

 

The Republican Candidates Donald Trump Has Hurt the Most

September 15, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Republican Candidates Donald Trump Has Hurt the Most"


Why Fund-Raising Is Important, Even if You Are Trump

September 04, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Why Fund-Raising Is Important, Even if You Are Trump"

The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates

August 21, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates"
 

News Coverage After Debates Matters More Than You Might Think

August 07, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "News Coverage After Debates Matters More Than You Might Think"

The Most Important Audience in the G.O.P. Debate? It’s Not the Voters

August 07, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Most Important Audience in the G.O.P. Debate? It’s Not the Voters"

2016 Endorsements: How and Why They Matter

July 30, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "2016 Endorsements: How and Why They Matter"

The Long Decline of Trust in Government, and Why That Can Be Patriotic

July 04, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Long Decline of Trust in Government, and Why That Can Be Patriotic"


Changing Views on a Female President

June 20, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Changing Views on a Female President"

Candidates Fight Over Abortion, but Public Has Surprising Level of Harmony

May 06, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Candidates Fight Over Abortion, but Public Has Surprising Level of Harmony"

The Party Is King in Presidential Voting, but a Person Can Make the Difference

April 08, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Party Is King in Presidential Voting, but a Person Can Make the Difference"


The Scrutiny Phase: Hillary Clinton’s Negativity Challenge

March 20, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "The Scrutiny Phase: Hillary Clinton’s Negativity Challenge"

Why Network News Still Matters 

February 19, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Why Network News Still Matters "


Why Joni Ernst Talked About Her Tough Upbringing

January 21, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Why Joni Ernst Talked About Her Tough Upbringing"
 

Why the Guests? Because Heartwarming Stories Work

January 21, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Why the Guests? Because Heartwarming Stories Work"


Obama’s Realistic Aim: Changing the Conversation, Not Minds

January 21, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Obama’s Realistic Aim: Changing the Conversation, Not Minds"

 

Jeb Bush, and Two Myths About Shifting to the Right 

January 03, 2015 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "Jeb Bush, and Two Myths About Shifting to the Right "

How Same-Sex Marriage Effort Found a Way Around Polarization

December 19, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - The Upshot - Print Headline: "How Same-Sex Marriage Effort Found a Way Around Polarization"

 

Midterm Political Ads That Worked, and Why 
Nov. 5, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "Midterm Political Ads That Worked, and Why"
 

The Secret About Undecided Voters: They're Predictable
Nov. 4, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "The Secret About Undecided Voters: They’re Predictable"
 

The Economy, and Voters' Perception of It, Are Two Very Different
Nov. 3, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "The Economy, and Voters’ Perception of It, Are Two Very Different Things"
 

The Economy Elects Presidents. Presidents Elect Congress
Nov. 2, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "The Economy Elects Presidents. Presidents Elect Congress."
 

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Campaign Ads 
Oct. 27, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Campaign Ads"
 

A Campaign Dollar's Power Is More Valuable to a Challenger

Oct. 7, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "A Campaign Dollar’s Power Is More Valuable to a Challenger"
 

What You Don't Know About Rob Portman Probably Won't Hurt Him

Sept. 9, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "What You Don’t Know About Rob Portman Probably Won’t Hurt Him"
 

It's Not Too Late for Republicans to Win Latino Votes 
Aug. 11, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "It's Not Too Late for Republicans to Win Latino Votes"
 

Summer Reading Contest Winner, Week 4 | A Millennial on Patriotism

July 22, 2014 - By THE LEARNING NETWORK - U.S.


The Risks of Hillary Clinton's Quasi-Campaign 

July 15, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "The Risks of Hillary Clinton’s Quasi-Campaign"

Summer Reading Contest, Week Four | What Interested You Most

July 04, 2014 - By KATHERINE SCHULTEN - U.S.

Younger Americans Are Less Patriotic. At Least, in Some Ways

July 4, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "Younger Americans Are Less Patriotic. At Least, in Some Ways."

Why Polls Can Sometimes Get Things So Wrong 

July 3, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "Why Polls Can Sometimes Get Things So Wrong"
 

Definition of 'Rich' Changes With Income 

June 16, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "Definition of ‘Rich’ Changes With Income"
 

Primary Voters, Maybe Not So Extreme After All 

June 12, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "Primary Voters, Maybe Not So Extreme After All"
 

The Power of Political Ignorance 

May 23, 2014 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Upshot - article - Print Headline: "The Power of Political Ignorance"

 

Inconclusive Results: Obama's Not-So-Big Data

Jan 21, 2014 

 

Politics Is a High-Stakes Game, and Lies Can Pay

Opinion - blogs - Print Headline: "Why Politicians Get Away With Lying"

 

Meet the Undecided 
July 30, 2012 - By LARRY M. BARTELS and LYNN VAVRECK - Opinion
 

The A-Little-Bit-Less Undecided 

September 20, 2012 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Opinion
 

Debating the Points of the First Presidential Debates 

October 03, 2012 - By THE EDITORS - Opinion

 

Debating Points, Vice Presidential Edition

October 11, 2012 - By THE EDITORS - Opinion

 

Debating Points: Obama vs. Romney, Round Two 

October 16, 2012 - By THE EDITORS - Opinion
 

Obama and Romney's Third Presidential Debate 

October 22, 2012 - By THE EDITORS - Opinion
 

In Defense of the Undecided 
November 01, 2012 - By LYNN VAVRECK - Opinion
 

WASHINGTON POST: 

Predict the 2012 election!

A model to help us focus on what's important. 04/24/12
 

WASHINGTON POST: 

For 2012, the unemployment rate doesn’t matter. The change in it does.

by Lynn Vavreck at 09:48 AM ET, 02/03/2012